Today, many of my real estate conversations center on housing prices in Northern VA and where they may be headed. That is why I like the Home Price Expectation Survey for a broad 20 thousand foot view of expectations. (Keep in mind real estate is local and can and does very neighborhood to neighborhood).

Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment & market strategists about where they believe prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.

The results of their latest survey:

Home values nationally will appreciate by 4.4% over the course of 2017, 3.4% in 2018, 2.8% in 2019, 2.7% in 2020, and 2.8% in 2021. That means the average annual appreciation will be 3.22% over the next 5 years.

The prediction for cumulative appreciation fell from 21.4% to 17.3% by 2021. The experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey are projecting a cumulative appreciation of 6.3%.

Northern Va Home Prices:

My expectations of where NOVA home prices are headed over the next five years are similar to these. 2017 should see an overall appreciation of 4% with the majority of this gained realized by single family homes and town homes priced from 400K-800K. The Northern VA luxury home market has seen excellent gains over the last 3 years and should remain flat in 2017. All homes in Northern VA will continue a steady price appreciation of 2%-2.5% from 2018-2020. This is taking into consideration an expected price slowing as mortgage interest rates begin to creep up over the next 24 months. My magic 8 ball is a little cloudy after 2020.

Bottom Line

Individual opinions make headlines. We believe this survey is a fairer depiction of future home values nationally. With my finger on the pulse of NOVA home prices, the sentiment of continued price appreciation is echoed by me as well for our local real estate market.